● Quantifiable impact of IoT connections and applications is creating new network demands and requirements. IoT connections will represent more than half (14.6 billion) of all global connected devices and connections (28.5 billion) by 2022. While IoT includes a wide variety of low-bandwidth to high-bandwidth applications (from smart meters to smart cars), the segment will represent more than 6 percent of global IP traffic by 2022 (up from just over 3 percent in 2017). In addition to traffic growth ramifications, IoT is also a catalyst for fixed/mobile convergence network innovations and comprehensive network security improvements.
Also, if we look at Internet devices such as Digital Media Adapters (DMAs), we find that although they will represent only 9 percent of all Internet connected TVs—including, service provider STBs, gaming consoles, and directly connected Internet TV sets—by 2022 they will represent 18 percent of global Internet connected TV traffic. This trend again shows that there is increasingly less reliance on STBs managed by service providers for Internet access in general and for video specifically (Figure 15).
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● Video surveillance: New Internet-connected video surveillance cameras upload a constant video stream to the cloud for remote viewing. With a steady flow of video traffic from each camera, video surveillance is already having an effect on overall Internet traffic. It accounts for 2 percent of Internet video traffic today and will grow 7-fold to reach 3 percent by 2022. If such devices become mass market in the next five years, we could see video cameras generating a significantly higher volume of traffic, since Internet-enabled cameras can produce up to 300 GB per camera per month for full HD-resolution monitoring of high-activity areas.
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Changes in traffic topology are being brought about by the increasing role of Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) in data delivery. CDNs will carry 72 percent of total Internet traffic by 2022 (Figure 24), up from 56 percent in 2017. Although network performance is usually attributed to the speeds and latencies offered by the service provider, the delivery algorithms used by CDNs have an equal if not more significant bearing on video quality.
The forecast for Internet video begins with estimations of the number of consumer fixed Internet users. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment (consumer versus business) and network (mobile versus fixed). The number of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment. The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internet users.
The next step is to reconcile the Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments of the forecast. The portion of mobile data traffic that has migrated from the fixed network is subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the amount of mobile data traffic offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back to the fixed forecast.
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