The video effect of the devices on the traffic is more pronounced because of the introduction of Ultra-High- Definition (UHD), or 4K, video streaming. This technology has such an effect because the bit rate for 4K video at about 15 to 18 Mbps is more than double the HD video bit rate and nine times more than Standard-Definition (SD) video bit rate. We estimate that by 2022, nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of the installed flat-panel TV sets will be UHD, up from 23 percent in 2017 (Figure 6).
Cisco’s approach to forecasting IP traffic has been characterized as conservative. Emerging trends and innovations in network architectures, device/connection deployments, and application adoption/usage have the potential to increase the outlook for traffic volumes, shapes and characteristics significantly. Based on our perspective and analysis, the following topics warrant consideration as future “wildcards” in the forecasting process.
A Distributed-Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack occurs when multiple systems flood the bandwidth or resources of a targeted system, usually one or more web servers. Such an attack is often the result of multiple compromised systems flooding the targeted system with traffic. DDoS attacks represent the dominant threat observed by the vast majority of service providers. Infrastructure outages also continue to be a threat with over half of operators experiencing this issue. Peak DDoS attack size was 600 Gbps in 2017, down from 841 Gbps in 2016, according to Arbor Networks 13th Annual Infrastructure Security report. But 1H 2018 told a different tale, the peak DDoS attack size was a dramatic 1.7 Tbps, a 179 percent increase from 1H 2017. This was due to cybercriminals exploiting vulnerabilities in the Memcached protocol, resulting in record breaking amplification attacks. This has become a method that is increasingly popular since it does not require malware driven botnets. Average DDoS attack size in 2017 was 990 Mbps, a slight decrease from 1,133 Mbps in 2016, enough to take most organizations completely offline. However, since Memcached appeared, average attack size has increased 37 percent from 1H 2017 to 1H 2018.
● 5G roll-outs provide mobility innovation and new levels of fixed/mobile convergence. By 2022, 22 percent of global Internet traffic will come from mobile (cellular) networks (up from 12 percent in 2017). By 2022, about 3 percent of global mobile devices/connections will be 5G-capable (and nearly 12 percent of global mobile traffic will come from 5G). As expected, mobile carriers from around the world are beginning to introduce trial 5G networks (see 5G Availability Around the World from Lifewire). Many industry experts believe that large-scale 5G deployments will begin to take shape in 2020, when mobile spectrum, standards, profitable business plans and other operational issues are more fully fleshed out.
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