● Video surveillance: New Internet-connected video surveillance cameras upload a constant video stream to the cloud for remote viewing. With a steady flow of video traffic from each camera, video surveillance is already having an effect on overall Internet traffic. It accounts for 2 percent of Internet video traffic today and will grow 7-fold to reach 3 percent by 2022. If such devices become mass market in the next five years, we could see video cameras generating a significantly higher volume of traffic, since Internet-enabled cameras can produce up to 300 GB per camera per month for full HD-resolution monitoring of high-activity areas.
The video effect of the devices on the traffic is more pronounced because of the introduction of Ultra-High- Definition (UHD), or 4K, video streaming. This technology has such an effect because the bit rate for 4K video at about 15 to 18 Mbps is more than double the HD video bit rate and nine times more than Standard-Definition (SD) video bit rate. We estimate that by 2022, nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of the installed flat-panel TV sets will be UHD, up from 23 percent in 2017 (Figure 6).
There are shifts within Internet video traffic itself as well (Figure 14). In particular, live Internet video has the potential to drive large amounts of traffic as it replaces traditional broadcast viewing hours. Live video already accounts for 5 percent of Internet video traffic and will grow 15-fold to reach 17 percent by 2022. Also, of note is the growth of video surveillance traffic (dropcams). This traffic is of a very different nature than live or on-demand streaming and represents a steady stream of upstream video camera traffic, uploaded continuously from homes and small businesses to the cloud.
The next step is to reconcile the Internet, managed IP, and mobile segments of the forecast. The portion of mobile data traffic that has migrated from the fixed network is subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the amount of mobile data traffic offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode devices and femtocells is added back to the fixed forecast.
DDoS attacks can represent up to 25 percent of a country’s total Internet traffic while they are occurring (Figure 17). In 2017 the top motivation behind DDoS attacks was criminals demonstrating attack capabilities, with gaming and criminal extortion attempts in second and third place, respectively. The events from 2017 and the first quarter of 2018 once again demonstrated that the attackers are increasing their computing resources to perform DDoS attacks. Amplification attackers, who have tools for carrying out a DDoS attack, exploit vulnerabilities in the network and compute resources. Security vendors continue to make sure these attacks are financially unviable for the cybercriminals.
● Content providers and distributors could adopt P2P as a distribution mechanism. There has been a strong case for P2P as a low-cost Content-Delivery System (CDS) for many years, yet most content providers and distributors have opted for direct distribution, with the exception of applications such as PPStream and PPLive in China, which offer live video streaming through P2P and have had great success. If content providers in other regions follow suit, traffic could rapidly become highly symmetric.
From a traffic perspective, we expect that on average a household that is still on linear TV will generate much less traffic than a household that has “cut the cord” and is relying on Internet video (Figure 16). A cord-cutting household generated 141 GB per month in 2017, compared to 82 GB per month for an average household. This difference occurs because linear television generates much less traffic (one stream of video shared across numerous linear-TV households) than Internet video, which is unicast to each Internet video device.
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